Are We On Target To Beat Last Years Sales?
How will the national presidential election affect the real estate market?
As you can tell, I’m full of questions this month. With 60 days to go until 2017, the real estate market continues to chug along at a strong pace. Keep your eye out for Chicken Little proclaiming that “The sky is falling”…. We are, after all at that time of year when the real estate market tends to slow down. Many would argue that the right house, in the right price point and in the right condition will still sell quickly, but overall, we have put to bed the frenzied multiple offer scenario at least until next spring.
So back to my questions. Has the Des Moines real estate market slowed down? The short answer is yes and perhaps no. As is typical for every October, home inventories tend to drop off. It is the time of year where home owners focus turns toward the holidays and family gatherings. The homes that are on the market during this time of year are mostly those sellers that either have a need to sell OR those that understand supply and demand. With fewer homes for buyers to choose from, the logic is that they may be able to get more from the sale than during the more active season. The year to date homes for sale graphic below shows that we have about 100 homes fewer on the market than a month ago. But if you look at the pending graphic, it doesn’t show a quite as dramatic downturn. The balance of the market graphic confirms this showing we are still in a solid sellers market with around 3 months of inventory. So if you ask a Realtor that primarily focuses on listing properties, the answer will be yes, the market is slowing and if you ask a Realtor that works predominantly with buyers, they will say that the market is still active.
Are we on target to beat last years sales? As of 5pm on October 31st, there have been 11,713 homes recorded as sold in the MLS. The same time last year, we had recorded 10,870 sales. So based on these numbers and the number of sales pending and waiting to close, it is logical to conclude that we should end 2016 with around 14,000 sales by December 31st. On December 31st of 2015, we had recorded 12,850 sales, so I am very confident that we will indeed beat last years sales numbers. A caveat to all of my sales numbers – My reports are all in a “Snapshot” view meaning that the numbers I report are as of a specific date. There are always pending transactions and sales that appear within several days after my snapshot report but due to data entry delays by individual brokerages, numbers do tend to rise from my reports. You could say that my data is best described as “Exit Polling”.
Which brings me to my last question. How will the national presidential election affect the real estate market? I wish I could be publishing this monthly report in a week…. I will be attending the National Association of Realtors annual convention this coming week where I will be listening to national speakers, economists, and fellow Realtors from all over the United States and this question will most certainly be the number one topic of this years convention. Since my publishing deadline is November 1st, I will share what I am hearing and reading. A September article from MyMortgageInsider.com hits the nail on the head with their first sub headline “Voters: Two Flawed Candidates”. The negative views of each candidate means that whoever ultimately wins the election will have one half of the general population against them, no matter what the topic or issue is. There is such uncertainty in this election that it will make it almost impossible to predict what is going to happen in housing next year.
Ultimately it is all going to come down to the general economy. Real estate requires consumer economic confidence, the ability to borrow money affordably, income to support a real estate purchase and the desire to own a home. I could go on and on but with the presidential elections a week away, I am going to hunker down, listen and watch what happens and be as confident as I can that 2017 will be a much better year that it appears will be.
~Les Sulgrove, Broker
VIA Group REALTORS
If you are interested in selling your home or purchasing a home, give me a call! I will help you determine your best strategy based on your local market data.
October 2016 End of Month Recap Reports
(Click on Thumbnail To Download/View Full Sized PDF)
October 2016 Year To Date Homes For Sale
October 2016 Year To Date Pending Transactions
October 2016 Year To Date Homes Sold
October 2016 Year To Date Balance of the Market
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