In my September report, I made four year end predictions. How did I do? Take a look!
Number of Homes For Sale
2014 has consistently had fewer homes for buyers to choose from with approximately 2½% less inventory over 2013 and almost 9% fewer homes compared to two years ago. My prediction is that Des Moines will continue to see low inventory into the end of the year but watch for consumer confidence to kick in during 2015.
As of December 31st there were 3,393 homes on the market, almost 11% fewer than a year ago. 2015 Actives have actually dropped as to as few as 3,311 and as of 1/19 are still below 3,400.
Median Sale Price
Des Moines has seen a consistent rise in the Median Sale Price since 2011 and 2014 is also a solid year. As of the end of September, the median sale price YTD for 2014 is $165,000. That is just short of a 3% increase in overall home prices from last year. My prediction is that Des Moines will continue to see slow and steady overall appreciation of values of between 2.75% and 3% as we finish 2014.
September’s Median Sale Price actually dropped just a bit to $163,000 as of 12/31 but was still an increase over 2013 by $1,000 when it was $162,000 which is just over a 1/2% increase.
Average Contracts Written
This number is often ignored, but it can be one of the more telling indicators of the markets health and activity. Average contracts written, also referred to as Pendings, is the best indication of future closed home sales. We are currently approximately 2½% behind last years Pendings. My prediction is that we will end 2014 slightly behind in Average Contracts Written.
End of year Average Contracts Written did end up just under 3% down from 2013.
Total Home Sales Closed
With my prediction of average contracts written being down at years end, I also believe that the total number of homes sold for 2014 will be down, however it will be very close to 2013’s record of 10,750. So my final prediction will be a slight drop in closed home sales but everyone will agree that it’s close enough to feel like we had a very good year in real estate sales for Des Moines.
I am happy to have missed this prediction, although I wished it was by many more sales. The total number of homes sold as of December 31st was 10,823 just a scant 69 more sales from last year.
This report is posted by the 15th of each month for the previous months transaction activity.